Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
